Ideas, methods & applications

Research.

Stochastic control, statistical learning and financial mathematics.
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51 publications · 44 journal articles · 7 conference papers
2026J44
Journal article

Pricing American option with a slow-varying stochastic factor

Y. Zheng, C.S. Pun*, & S.-P. Zhu

Operations Research Letters. 69, 107494. Available online 7 Jul 2026.

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Studies American option pricing when volatility is driven by a slowly varying stochastic factor. An asymptotic expansion yields analytical approximations for both the option value and optimal exercise boundary; a Kim-type integral equation improves the leading-order computation, and explicit error analysis provides accuracy guarantees.

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2026J43
Journal articleAccepted

Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation in General Incomplete Markets: A Nonlocal BSDE-based Feedback Control Approach

Q. Lei, J. Tang, & C.S. Pun

SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics. Accepted for publication; bibliographic details forthcoming.

Research summary
Editorial summary · not the verbatim abstract

Develops a nonlocal BSDE-based feedback-control approach to dynamic mean-variance asset allocation in general incomplete markets.

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2026J42
Journal article

Q-World-Informed Double Neural Networks for Option Pricing PDEs

Y.H. Kee & C.S. Pun*

International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance. 29(1–2), 2650009 (25 pages). Published 29 Apr 2026.

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Introduces Q-world-informed neural networks (QINN), which balance empirical option-price fitting against PDE consistency, and a model-free extension, QINN², in which a neural network learns the volatility input to a Black–Scholes PDE backbone. Experiments across Black–Scholes, CEV, Heston and 3/2 models demonstrate robust pricing and parameter-learning performance.

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2026J41
Journal articleSelected work

An LM-type Unit Root Test for Functional Time Series

Y. Chen & C.S. Pun*

Mathematics. 14(5), 916 (38 pages).

Publisher R package SSRN
Research summary
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Develops an LM-type test of a random-walk null hypothesis for functional time series, without relying on functional principal component analysis or a finite-dimensional unit-root subspace. The work establishes asymptotic validity and consistency, and studies the test through simulations and intraday stock-price curves.

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2026J40
Journal article

Analytical approximations for American option pricing under regime-switching models

Y. Zheng, C.S. Pun*, & S.-P. Zhu

Quantitative Finance. 26(3), 375–392.

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Develops two analytical approximation frameworks for American option prices and optimal exercise strategies under regime-switching models: one perturbed around a Black–Scholes solution and one tailored to short-tenor options. Explicit error bounds support the approximations, while numerical results illustrate their accuracy and efficiency.

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2025J39
Journal article

Robust Time-Inconsistent Linear-Quadratic Stochastic Controls: A Stochastic Differential Game Approach

B. Han, C.S. Pun*, & H.Y. Wong

Applied Mathematics and Optimization. 92, 37 (35 pages).

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Formulates robust, time-inconsistent linear-quadratic control as a stochastic differential game. Sufficient equilibrium conditions are developed through spike variations, with mean-variance examples exploring how state- and control-dependent ambiguity aversion changes the resulting decisions.

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2025J38
Journal article

Stock Market Simulator using Hidden Markov Generative Models and its Application in Risk Measurement

R. A. Istiaque, C.S. Pun* & Y.S. Yong

Quantitative Finance. 25(6), 873-893.

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Combines a hidden Markov model with Wasserstein generative adversarial networks to simulate multivariate stock returns across market regimes. A regime model selects the market state, while a regime-specific generator produces returns for studying market dynamics and risk measurement.

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2025J37
Journal articleSelected work

Quantum Algorithms for the Pathwise Lasso

J. Doriguello*, D. Lim, C.S. Pun, P. Rebentrost, and T. Vaidya

Quantum. 9, 1674 (54 pages).

Publisher arXiv
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Develops quantum algorithms for tracing the Lasso regularisation path, building on least-angle regression. The paper analyses conditional speedups, robustness to approximate computations, a dequantised counterpart, and lower bounds. The speedups depend on the stated data-access and distributional assumptions.

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2025J36
Journal article

Machine Learning-Based SERS Chemical Space for Two-Way Prediction of Structures and Spectra of Untrained Molecules

J.R.T. Chen, E.X. Tan, J. Tang, S.X. Leong, S.K.X. Hue, C.S. Pun, I.Y. Phang*, & X.Y. Ling*

Journal of the American Chemical Society. 147(8), 6654-6664.

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Uses machine learning to connect molecular structures with surface-enhanced Raman scattering spectra. The paper studies two-way prediction between structures and spectra, including molecules outside the training set.

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2025J35
Journal articleSelected work

A Subgame Perfect Equilibrium Reinforcement Learning Approach to Time-inconsistent Problems

N.S. Lesmana & C.S. Pun*

SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics. 16(1), 68-122.

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Develops a reinforcement-learning framework for subgame-perfect equilibrium in time-inconsistent decision problems. Extended backward policy iteration addresses the loss of standard dynamic-programming relationships, with sample-based algorithms illustrated through mean-variance portfolio selection.

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2025C7
Conference paper

Financial Time Series Simulation with Transformer-based Generative Models under Continuous Conditions

H.R.Y. Ho & C.S. Pun*

Proceedings of the International Conference on Financial Technology (ICFT '24). 191-206.

Publisher
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Studies transformer-based generative models for financial time-series simulation under continuous conditions. The paper considers conditional scenario generation for financial data.

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2024J34
Journal article

Creating 3D Nanoparticle Structural Space via Data Augmentation to Bidirectionally Predict Nanoparticle Mixture's Purity, Size, and Shape from Extinction Spectra

E.X. Tan, J. Tang, Y.X. Leong, I.Y. Phang, Y.H. Lee, C.S. Pun*, & X.Y. Ling*

Angewandte Chemie. 63(14), e202317978.

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Builds a nanoparticle structural representation using data augmentation and machine learning. The work links extinction spectra with a mixture's purity, particle size and shape, considering prediction in both directions.

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2024J33
Journal articleSelected work

Nonlocality, Nonlinearity, and Time Inconsistency in Stochastic Differential Games

Q. Lei & C.S. Pun*

Mathematical Finance. 34(1), 190-256.

Publisher
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Examines stochastic differential games in which time inconsistency leads to nonlocal and nonlinear mathematical structures. The paper connects equilibrium decision problems with the analysis of the associated differential equations.

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2024C6
Conference paper

Simulating Asset Prices under Conditional Time-Series GAN

R.A. Istiaque, C.S. Pun*, & Y. Song

Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF '24). 770-778.

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Studies conditional time-series generative adversarial networks for simulating asset prices. The focus is on generating financial trajectories while incorporating conditioning information.

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2024C5
Conference paper

Navigating the Difficulty of Achieving Global Optimality under Variance-Induced Time Inconsistency

J. Tang, N.S. Lesmana, & C.S. Pun*

Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF '24). 686-694.

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Examines the difficulty of global optimisation when variance-based objectives introduce time inconsistency. The paper considers the implications for learning and sequential decision-making.

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2024C4
Conference paper

Autoregressive DRL with Learned Intrinsic Rewards for Portfolio Optimisation

M.H.Q. Lim, N.S. Lesmana*, & C.S. Pun

Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF '24). 353-360.

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Studies portfolio optimisation using autoregressive deep reinforcement learning and learned intrinsic rewards. The work considers how the learning architecture and reward design shape investment decisions.

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2023J32
Journal article

An Extended McKean--Vlasov Dynamic Programming Approach to Robust Equilibrium Controls under Ambiguous Covariance Matrix

Q. Lei & C.S. Pun*

Applied Mathematics and Optimization. 88, 91 (46 pages).

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Studies robust equilibrium controls when the covariance matrix is ambiguous. An extended McKean-Vlasov dynamic-programming perspective connects the control problem, distribution-dependent dynamics and time-inconsistent objectives.

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2023J31
Journal article

Data-driven Distributionally Robust CVaR Portfolio Optimization under Regime-Switching Ambiguity Set

C.S. Pun, T. Wang, & Z. Yan*

Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. 25(5), 1779-1795.

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Studies data-driven portfolio optimisation with conditional value-at-risk and distributional uncertainty. A regime-switching ambiguity set allows the uncertainty description to reflect different market environments.

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2023J30
Journal article

Nonlocal Fully Nonlinear Parabolic Differential Equations Arising in Time-Inconsistent Problems

Q. Lei & C.S. Pun*

Journal of Differential Equations. 358, 339-385.

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Studies nonlocal, fully nonlinear parabolic differential equations motivated by time-inconsistent control problems. The focus is on the mathematical structure needed to characterise equilibrium rather than standard dynamically optimal decisions.

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2023J29
Journal article

Optimal Multi-period Transaction-cost-aware Long-Only Portfolios and Time Consistency in Efficiency

C.S. Pun* & Z. Ye

Quantitative Finance. 23(2), 351-365.

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Studies multi-period portfolio selection with transaction costs and long-only constraints. The paper examines how implementable investment decisions interact with time consistency in portfolio efficiency.

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2023J28
Journal article

Bayesian Estimation and Optimization for Learning Sequential Regularized Portfolios

G.P. Marisu & C.S. Pun*

SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics. 14(1), 127-157.

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Connects Bayesian estimation with sequential portfolio optimisation and regularisation. The work considers how learning from financial data can be integrated with repeated investment decisions rather than treated as a separate preliminary step.

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2023J27
Journal article

Efficient Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Integrating Economic and Public Health Considerations

K. Chen, C.S. Pun, & H.Y. Wong*

European Journal of Operational Research. 304(1), 84-98.

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Studies social-distancing decisions by jointly considering economic activity and public-health consequences. The paper brings optimisation methods to the trade-offs involved in pandemic responses.

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2023C3
Conference paper

DRL Trading with CPT Actor and Truncated Quantile Critics

J.R. Foo, N.S. Lesmana*, & C.S. Pun

Proceedings of the 4th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF '23). 574-582.

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Studies a trading framework with a cumulative-prospect-theory actor and truncated quantile critics. The approach connects behavioural preferences with distributional elements of deep reinforcement learning.

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2022J26
Journal articleSelected work

Reinventing Policy Iteration under Time Inconsistency

N.S. Lesmana*, H. Su, & C.S. Pun

Transactions on Machine Learning Research. (29 pages).

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Revisits policy iteration for decision objectives that are time-inconsistent. The paper connects reinforcement learning with equilibrium-based planning, where preferences over future actions can change as time passes.

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2022J25
Journal article

Robust Classical-Impulse Stochastic Control Problems in an Infinite Horizon

C.S. Pun*

Mathematical Methods of Operations Research. 96, 291-312.

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Studies robust control over an infinite horizon with both continuous interventions and discrete impulses. The framework addresses decision-making when the model itself is uncertain and actions can take different forms.

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2022J24
Journal article

Persistent-Homology-based Machine Learning: A Survey and A Comparative Study

C.S. Pun*, S.X. Lee, & K. Xia*

Artificial Intelligence Review. 55, 5169-5213.

Publisher Data & code
Research summary
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Surveys machine-learning methods built on persistent homology and compares their use in learning tasks. The focus is on how topological information can be represented and incorporated into statistical prediction.

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2022J23
Journal article

Robust Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear-Quadratic Control with Drift Perturbation

B. Han, C.S. Pun*, & H.Y. Wong

Applied Mathematics and Optimization. 86, 4 (40 pages).

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Studies linear-quadratic stochastic control with time-inconsistent preferences and uncertainty in the drift. The work brings model robustness and equilibrium decision-making into the same control setting.

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2022J22
Journal article

Incorporating Plasmonic Featurization with Machine Learning to Achieve Accurate and Bidirectional Prediction of Nanoparticle Size and Size Distribution

E.X. Tan, Y. Chen, Y.H. Lee, Y.X. Leong, S.X. Leong, C.V. Stanley, C.S. Pun*, & X.Y. Ling*

Nanoscale Horizons. 7, 626-633.

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Combines plasmonic feature construction with machine learning to connect nanoparticle properties and optical responses. The paper studies prediction of particle sizes and size distributions in a bidirectional setting.

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2022J21
Journal article

Machine-Learning-enhanced Systemic Risk Measure: A Two-Step Supervised Learning Approach

R. Liu & C.S. Pun*

Journal of Banking and Finance. 136, 106416 (17 pages).

Publisher Data & code
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Studies a two-stage supervised-learning approach to systemic financial risk measurement. Machine-learning components are used to represent the relationships relevant to measuring risk across a financial system.

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2022J20
Journal article

Optimal Dynamic Mean-Variance Portfolio subject to Proportional Transaction Costs and No-Shorting Constraint

C.S. Pun* & Z. Ye

Automatica. 135, 109986 (9 pages).

Publisher SSRN / extension
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Studies dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection in the presence of proportional transaction costs and a no-shorting constraint. The investment problem explicitly accounts for trading frictions and feasible portfolio positions.

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2022C2
Conference paper

Stock Movement Prediction with Social Sentiments and Interactional Data: Integrating NLP and Bayesian Frameworks

J.R. Foo & C.S. Pun*

Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Natural Language Processing (ICNLP '22). 530-536.

Publisher Data Codes
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Combines natural-language processing and Bayesian methods for stock-movement prediction. Social sentiment and interaction data provide information alongside the financial prediction task.

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2021J19
Journal article

Robust Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with State-Dependent Ambiguity and Risk Aversion: A Closed-Loop Approach

B. Han, C.S. Pun*, & H.Y. Wong

Finance and Stochastics. 25(3), 529-561.

Publisher
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Studies robust mean-variance investment decisions when ambiguity aversion and risk aversion depend on the state. A closed-loop perspective connects these preferences with portfolio decisions as the market evolves.

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2021J18
Journal article

A Sparse Learning Approach to Relative-Volatility-Managed Portfolio Selection

C.S. Pun*

SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics. 12(1), 410-445.

Paper R package
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Uses sparse learning in portfolio selection guided by relative volatility. The paper connects high-dimensional estimation and investment design when a parsimonious portfolio representation is desirable.

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2021J17
Journal article

A Cost-effective Approach to Portfolio Construction with Range-based Risk Measures

C.S. Pun* & L. Wang

Quantitative Finance. 21(3), 431-447.

Publisher
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Studies portfolio construction using range-based measures of risk. The emphasis is on connecting risk estimation with a cost-conscious approach to investment decisions.

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2021J15
Journal article

A Self-Calibrated Regularized Direct Estimation for Graphical Selection and Discriminant Analysis in High Dimensions

C.S. Pun* & M.Z. Hadimaja

Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 155, 107105 (20 pages).

Publisher R package
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Develops a self-calibrated, regularised direct-estimation approach for high-dimensional statistical problems. Graphical selection and discriminant analysis provide two settings for studying the estimator.

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2020J14
Journal article

Weighted-Persistent-Homology-based Machine Learning for RNA Flexibility Analysis

C.S. Pun*, Y.S. Yong, & K. Xia*

PLOS ONE. 15(8): e0237747 (17 pages).

Publisher Code
Research summary
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Applies weighted persistent homology and machine learning to RNA flexibility analysis. Topological representations provide a way to connect molecular structure with a prediction task.

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2020J13
Journal article

Robust Time-Consistent Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem with Multivariate Stochastic Volatility

T. Yan*, B. Han, C.S. Pun, & H.Y. Wong

Mathematics and Financial Economics. 14, 699-724.

Publisher
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Studies robust, time-consistent mean-variance portfolio choice with multivariate stochastic volatility. The work combines evolving volatility, model uncertainty and dynamically consistent investment decisions.

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2020C1
Conference paper

Financial Thought Experiment: A GAN-based Approach to Vast Robust Portfolio Selection

C.S. Pun*, L. Wang, & H.Y. Wong

Proceedings of the 29th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI '20). 4619-4625.

Publisher Video
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Uses generative adversarial networks in a financial thought-experiment approach to robust portfolio selection. The paper connects synthetic financial scenarios with investment decisions in a high-dimensional setting.

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2019J12
Journal article

A Bootstrap-based KPSS Test for Functional Time Series

Y. Chen & C.S. Pun*

Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 174, 104535 (19 pages).

Publisher R package
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Develops bootstrap-based KPSS testing for functional time series. The paper studies the validity and finite-sample behaviour of stationarity testing when each observation is a curve rather than a scalar.

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2019J11
Journal articleSelected work

A Linear Programming Model for Selection of Sparse High-Dimensional Multiperiod Portfolios

C.S. Pun* & H.Y. Wong

European Journal of Operational Research. 273, 754-771.

Research summary
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Formulates sparse, high-dimensional multi-period portfolio selection through linear programming. The work links estimation and optimisation when the number of investable assets is large relative to the available data.

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2018J10
Journal article

Time-Consistent Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Only Risky Assets

C.S. Pun*

Economic Modelling. 75, 281-292.

Publisher
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Studies time-consistent mean-variance investment when only risky assets are available. The paper examines portfolio decisions without using a risk-free asset as part of the investment opportunity set.

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2018J9
Journal article

Robust Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Control Problems

C.S. Pun*

Automatica. 94, 249-257.

Publisher SSRN / extension
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Studies stochastic control problems that combine model uncertainty with time-inconsistent preferences. The work addresses equilibrium decision-making when ordinary dynamic-programming arguments no longer apply directly.

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2017J8
Journal article

Big Data Challenges of High-Dimensional Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection and a Remedy

M.C. Chiu*, C.S. Pun, & H.Y. Wong

Risk Analysis. 37, 1532-1549.

Paper
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Studies challenges arising in high-dimensional continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection. The paper considers how statistical estimation issues affect an investment problem with many assets.

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2016J6
Journal article

Portfolio Optimization with Ambiguous Correlation and Stochastic Volatilities

J.-P. Fouque, C.S. Pun, & H.Y. Wong*

SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization. 54, 2309-2338.

Paper
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Studies portfolio optimisation with stochastic volatility and uncertain asset correlation. The paper considers how uncertainty about dependence interacts with volatility dynamics in investment decisions.

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2016J5
Journal article

Non-Zero-Sum Reinsurance Games subject to Ambiguous Correlations

C.S. Pun, C.C. Siu, & H.Y. Wong*

Operations Research Letters. 44, 578-586.

Publisher
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Studies non-zero-sum reinsurance games with ambiguous correlations. The framework considers strategic insurance decisions when the dependence structure of the underlying risks is not known precisely.

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2016J4
Journal article

Robust Non-Zero-Sum Stochastic Differential Reinsurance Game

C.S. Pun & H.Y. Wong*

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 68, 169-177.

Publisher SSRN / extension
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Studies a robust, non-zero-sum stochastic differential game for reinsurance. The paper combines strategic interaction with uncertainty about the model governing insurance risks.

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2015J3
Journal article

Robust Investment-Reinsurance Optimization with Multiscale Stochastic Volatility

C.S. Pun & H.Y. Wong*

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 62, 245-256.

Publisher
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Studies investment and reinsurance decisions under model uncertainty and multiscale stochastic volatility. The work connects insurance risk management with financial-market dynamics evolving at different time scales.

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2015J2
Journal article

Variance Swap with Mean Reversion, Multifactor Stochastic Volatility and Jumps

C.S. Pun, S.F. Chung, & H.Y. Wong*

European Journal of Operational Research. 245, 571-580.

Publisher
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Studies variance swaps in a model incorporating mean reversion, multiple stochastic-volatility factors and jumps. The paper considers how these features enter the valuation of volatility-linked contracts.

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2013J1
Journal article

CEV Asymptotics of American Options

C.S. Pun & H.Y. Wong*

Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications. 403, 451-463.

Publisher
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Studies asymptotic methods for American option valuation under a constant-elasticity-of-variance model. The work focuses on early exercise in a setting where volatility depends on the underlying asset price.

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* Corresponding author, as marked in the publication record. Research summaries are short editorial descriptions, not publisher abstracts. Paper links lead to the original sources. Paper identifiers (J/C) follow my CV numbering. Bibliography exports are generated from the displayed metadata; publisher citations remain authoritative.

Talks & presentations

Conferences, research seminars and public conversations.

Selected conferences, seminars, keynotes and public presentations. Where a talk title is not listed, the event name identifies the presentation.

Academic conferences & seminars

2026

Invited · Workshop in Financial Mathematics and Stochastic Control, Dec 2026 · upcoming, Sydney, Australia
Invited · The 10th Asian Quantitative Finance Conference (AQFC), Jul 2026, Pohang / Seoul
Invited · Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting 2026 (IMS-APRM 2026), Jun 2026, Hong Kong
Keynote · Singapore AI Research Week: Trustworthy AI for Uplifting Financial Services Productivity, Jan 2026, Singapore

2025

Invited · South China Normal University (SCNU)–SMS Seminar, Jun 2025, Guangzhou, China
Invited · SKKU–Sookmyung Joint International Workshop on Quantitative Finance and Applied Probability, Aug 2025, Seoul, Korea
Invited · CUHK Symposium on Statistics and Risk Management 2025, Dec 2025, Hong Kong

2024

2023

SIAM Conference on Financial Mathematics & Engineering (FM23), Jun 6-9, 2023, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

INFORMS Annual Meeting 2015, Nov 1-4, 2015, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

2014

Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) 2014 Conference, Dec 17-20, 2014, Sydney, Australia
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014, Nov 9-12, 2014, San Francisco, California, USA
International Symposium on Differential Equations & Stochastic Analysis in Mathematical Finance, Jul 12-16, 2014, Tsinghua Sanya International Mathematics Forum, Sanya, China

2013

2012

Public lectures & panels

2021

(Panelist of) Regional Cooperation on Promoting FinTech: Perspectives of Singapore, 2021 CTPECC - Singapore Webinar, Online, 30 Nov 2021 [Follow-up publication: Mehta and Pun (2021, APP)]

2019

(Public Lecture) Introduction to Machine Learning in Finance, FinTech International Workshop at Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea, 20 Dec 2019
(Public Lecture) Introduction to Machine Learning in Finance, Sharing Session at NTU Singapore, 22 Aug 2019
(Panelist of) Nurturing FinTech Talents for Singapore and Asia, Singapore FinTech Festival, Singapore, 12 Nov 2019
(Public Lecture) Introduction to Statistical Machine Learning, Strengths in Diversity Symposium at NTU Singapore, 31 Jul 2019
(Public Lecture) Introduction to Machine Learning in Finance, Sharing Session at NUS, 23 Jul 2019

2016

(Public Lecture) Robust Stochastic Control and High-Dimensional Statistics with Applications in Finance, MAS Colloquium at NTU Singapore, 21 Sep 2016

Software & datasets

Reusable tools and data accompanying the research.

Working papers

The earlier working paper on the LM-type functional unit-root test now appears as journal article J41.

Theses, writing & other publications

Research funding

Principal-investigator funding, gratefully acknowledged. Dates are the recorded award periods, not statements of current grant status.

WeBank Scholar

Jul 2024 - Jun 2026

MOE AcRF Tier 1

Nov 2022 - Jul 2025

A*STAR QEP 2.0

Apr 2022 - Mar 2025

MOE AcRF Tier 2

Nov 2021 - Feb 2025

MOE AcRF Tier 2

Jan 2018 - Jul 2021

DSAIR Grant

Sep 2017 - Nov 2019

NRF SR2 Planning Grant

Oct 2018 - Sep 2019

Collaborators

Collaborations across mathematics, statistics, computing, finance and the sciences. Affiliations are indicative and may change over time.

Cite this work.